Tag Archives: Prediction Market

Decentralized prediction market regulatory analysis, covering US CFTC enforcement cases, compliance paths, and global regulatory trends.

CFTC Prediction Market Regulatory Controversy: CME CEO and Kalshi executives engage in heated debate over event contract compliance.
CFTC Prediction Market Regulatory Controversy: CME CEO and Kalshi executives engage in heated debate over event contract compliance.

On August 20, 2026, at the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, CME Group CEO Terrence Duffy, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, and Kalshi COO Luana Lopes Lara...

21
June
US | SoFi and Figure founder Mike Cagney launches self-custodied wallet The Wallet Co: integrating yield cash, RWA, and on-chain securities
Self-custodied wallet product information verification: Proposed features are not equivalent to existing licenses.

Media coverage of the new wallet product can indicate the proposed direction; whether it triggers securities, brokerage, trading venue or commodity regulatory obligations still depends on the actual functionality and applicable rules.

20
June
The US CFTC is reviewing prediction market "mention contracts," and Kalshi has removed sports-related products from its platform.
The US CFTC is reviewing prediction market "mention contracts," and Kalshi has removed sports-related products from its platform.

The U.S. CFTC is internally reviewing "mention markets" in the prediction market, with a core concern being the susceptibility of these contracts to manipulation. Kalshi has already removed all sports-related mention markets, while political and financial mention markets are still trading. The regulatory basis is the "unmanipulated" listing threshold under the Commodity Exchange Act; the trigger was the case of a White House teleprompter operator using presidential quotes to place bets, freezing over $9 in profits. The review is not yet a formal, publicly announced action.

16
June
Global Crypto Funding in the First Half of 2026: $112 Billion Flows Entirely to Licensed Companies, Marking the End of the Permissionless Era
Global Crypto Funding in the First Half of 2026: $112 Billion Flows Entirely to Licensed Companies, Marking the End of the Permissionless Era

A report on crypto funding in the first half of 2026 released by Dubai-based crypto law firm NeosLegal shows that the industry raised $112 billion in 377 rounds during the first half of the year, with all publicly disclosed funds flowing to regulated, licensed companies. Payments and stablecoins, prediction markets, and exchanges ranked in the top three, reflecting that regulatory licenses are being repriced as a prerequisite for institutional capital allocation and as scarce defensive assets.

16
June
JPMorgan Chase terminates Polymarket banking services: anticipating risk isolation for bank entry amid regulatory gaps in the market.
JPMorgan Chase terminates Polymarket banking services: anticipating risk isolation for bank entry amid regulatory gaps in the market.

According to the Financial Times, JPMorgan Chase will terminate its banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October 2025, citing regulatory concerns, but will retain its investment banking partnership. This event reflects banks' risk-mitigation logic and segmented risk isolation for businesses with uncertain regulatory characterization; bank licensing has become a prerequisite for operating as a licensed institution.

15
June
US-derived brand photos | CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee's first meeting on August 20th focused on crypto assets, AI, and prediction markets.
US-derived brand photos | CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee's first meeting on August 20th focused on crypto assets, AI, and prediction markets.

The U.S. CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee will hold its first meeting on August 20, focusing on the structure of the crypto asset market, the role of artificial intelligence, and federal jurisdiction over prediction markets. There will be no vote on new regulations, and public comments will be accepted until August 27. The White House is reportedly scheduled to convene executives from crypto and prediction market companies the day before the meeting.

15
June
The White House plans to convene a meeting on the regulation of crypto and prediction markets; the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee's launch will impact licensed institutions.
The White House plans to convene a meeting on the regulation of crypto and prediction markets; the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee's launch will impact licensed institutions.

US President Trump is expected to attend a closed-door meeting with executives from the White House, the crypto asset, prediction market, and AI industries on August 19, 2026. The meeting will pave the way for the first meeting of the CFTC’s newly established Innovation Advisory Committee, focusing on the clarity of the regulatory framework and market structure for digital assets and prediction markets. It will also serve as a reference for cross-border licensing strategies and compliance assessments of acquisitions of licensed institutions.

15
June
New guidance from the US CFTC's Prediction Market Incentive Program: Analysis of DCM Reporting Obligations and Compliance Risks Related to Data Manipulation
CFTC Prediction Market Incentive Program New Guidance: First, let's look at the official advisory requirements for DCM self-certification.

As of August 13, 2026, this US market prediction article can be rewritten using official materials: CFTC Press Release 9282-26 of August 12, 2026 states that Division

13
June
The New York City Council's investigation into marketing compliance on forecasting platforms: a new front in the federal-state jurisdictional battle.
The New York City Council launches a predictive marketing survey: First, let's look at the City Council's letter and the CFTC's emergency order.

As of August 13, 2026, publicly available materials reliably confirm two facts: A New York City Council official press release dated August 12, 2026, announced that City Council President Julie Menin...

13
June
New York State Sues Prediction Market Kalshi: The Ultimate Jurisdiction Battle Between a CFTC Federal License and a State Gambling Ban
New York State Sues Prediction Market Kalshi: The Ultimate Jurisdiction Battle Between a CFTC Federal License and a State Gambling Ban

On July 31, 2026, New York Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul jointly sued prediction market platform KalshiEX LLC, accusing it of operating an illegal gambling business and facing potential penalties of approximately $36 billion. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig filed for a temporary restraining order on the same day to block the state lawsuit. This case represents the ultimate battle over jurisdiction between the CFTC's DCM federal license and the state's gambling ban.

01
June
Binance.US to apply for CFTC DCM license to enter prediction market: Compliance rebound and product matrix restructuring of licensed crypto exchanges
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30
June
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29
June
Attorneys general from 44 US states jointly oppose CFTC federal regulation of the sports betting market: DCM licensees face the risk of jurisdictional fragmentation.
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29
June
Acquisition by CFTC-licensed US exchange: Fanatics acquires dual DCM and DCO licenses through Water Street Labs to expand its prediction market presence.
Acquisition by CFTC-licensed US exchange: Fanatics acquires dual DCM and DCO licenses through Water Street Labs to expand its prediction market presence.

US sports betting platform Fanatics acquired CFTC-registered DCM Water Street Labs and DCO CX Clearinghouse from BGC Group, building its own full-stack federally regulated prediction market exchange. Following the acquisition, Fanatics will hold four CFTC licenses (DCM, DCO, IB, and FCM), achieving a strategic leap from a traffic platform to a full-stack licensed operator. Fanatics Markets already covers 23 US states and 4 overseas territories.

28
June
Hyperliquid and Multicoin jointly urge the CFTC to unify regulation of prediction markets: a federal rules game on the path to decentralized compliance.
Hyperliquid and Multicoin jointly urge the CFTC to unify regulation of prediction markets: a federal rules game on the path to decentralized compliance.

Hyperliquid Policy Center and Multicoin Capital jointly submitted a comment letter to the CFTC, supporting a regulatory framework for prediction markets and urging the CFTC, as the sole federal regulator, to exclude state gambling laws from application. They also separately advocated for a function-oriented compliance pathway for decentralized prediction markets. With monthly trading volume exceeding $500 billion, the development of regulatory rules will reshape the underlying rules governing access to the US event trading market.

27
June
The US CFTC has banned the use of templated, mass-produced, self-certified event contracts in prediction markets.
The US CFTC has banned the use of templated, mass-produced, self-certified event contracts in prediction markets.

On July 24, 2026, the CFTC's Market Oversight Division issued Advisory 26-22, explicitly prohibiting prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Crypto.com from using templated methods to mass-produce self-certified event contract series. Closely related contracts can still be certified by category, but packaged submissions across events or settlement sources are no longer compliant. This is the second time in recent months that the CFTC has issued a warning to the prediction market industry, amid escalating disputes involving state court injunctions and federal jurisdiction.

26
June
Hedgeye Joins the Prediction Market ETF Competition: How Democratic and Republican ETFs Are Reshaping Political Event Trading
Hedgeye Joins the Prediction Market ETF Competition: How Democratic and Republican ETFs Are Reshaping Political Event Trading

US investment research firm Hedgeye plans to launch Democratic ETF (HDEM) and Republican ETF (HREP), joining the competition from prediction market ETFs offered by Roundhill, Bitwise, and GraniteShares. This article analyzes the binary event contract operating mechanism, competitive landscape, and regulatory boundaries of prediction market ETFs.

24
June
The U.S. CFTC invoked its emergency powers for the first time since 1980 to block a Michigan court from canceling transactions already executed on the Kalshi DCM licensed platform.
The U.S. CFTC invoked its emergency powers for the first time since 1980 to block a Michigan court from canceling transactions already executed on the Kalshi DCM licensed platform.

The CFTC invoked its emergency powers, used for the first time since 1980, to block Kalshi from enforcing a state court order to cancel the transaction, raising fundamental questions about federal priority for DCM licenses. The CFTC has filed lawsuits against nine states to uphold federal exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.

23
June
Coinbase Canada is advancing its CIRO restricted trader license upgrade: a "full-service exchange" strategy encompassing tokenized stocks, crypto derivatives, and prediction markets.
Coinbase Canada is advancing its CIRO restricted trader license upgrade: a "full-service exchange" strategy encompassing tokenized stocks, crypto derivatives, and prediction markets.

Coinbase Canada's new CEO, Eric Richmond, announced a "full-fledged exchange" strategy, working with CIRO to upgrade its restricted dealer license to a fully registered dealer license. The company plans to introduce three new products: tokenized stocks, crypto futures, and prediction markets. Tokenized stocks, which will be implemented through licensed brokers and include dividends and voting rights, are expected to be available to non-US clients this month. The legislative process for stablecoins in Canada will be a key catalyst.

22
June
Competition in the US prediction market platform sector has entered a phase of regulatory weaponization: The New York Times reveals that Kalshi used legal and licensing channels to target Polymarket.
Competition in the US prediction market platform sector has entered a phase of regulatory weaponization: The New York Times reveals that Kalshi used legal and licensing channels to target Polymarket.

A New York Times investigation revealed that licensed prediction market platform Kalshi proactively contacted SDNY prosecutors months before the FBI raid on Polymarket's founders, attempting to block ICE's $20 billion strategic investment in Polymarket. Both platforms hold CFTC DCM licenses but have taken drastically different paths, highlighting state-level regulation as a second battleground in the compliance race.

22
June

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